Markets First
Markets First is a world in which market driven developments converge on the values and expectations that prevail in industrialised countries 

Assumptions about Driving Forces
Demography gradual completion of demographic transition in most regions

Economy  fairly stable growth rates

Society  individual ethos dominates

Culture   increasingly uniform; consumption-oriented

Technology rapid advances, but slightly outpaced by activity growth

Governance mix of top-down and bottom-up; reactive outside of economic arena; often rhetorical; degree of implementation varies; mixed results

Environment robust within limits

Policy First
Policy First is a world in which concerted action on environment and social issues occurs through incremental policy adjustments

Assumptions about Driving Forces
Demography accelerated completion of demographic transition in most regions

Economy cautious growth balanced by social and environmental concerns

Society  balance between individual and community ethos

Culture  continues to be consumption-oriented, but tempered; respect for diversity

Technology targeted technological improvements; slightly outpaces activity growth 

Governance top-down; proactive in intent; slow in implementation; mixed results

Environment  robust within limits

Security First
Security First is a world of fragmentation, where inequality and conflict prevail, brought about by socio-economic and environmental stresses 

Assumptions about Driving Forces
Demography slow completion of demographic transition combined with stagnation or reversal of life expectancy among some groups

Economy laissez-faire approach to economic activity; increasingly disrupted

Society  individual ethos dominates

Culture  increasingly uniform within walls; fragmented and diverse outside

Technology  fragmented technological advance; well behind growth in activity

Governance little at first; reactive; when applied, top-down and heavy handed

Environment a number of environmental systems exhibit increased fragility

Sustainability First
Sustainability First is a world in which a new development paradigm emerges in response to the challenge of sustainability, supported by new values and institutions 

Assumptions about Driving Forces
Demography greatly accelerated completion of demographic transition in most regions

Economy new patterns of economic activity; old measures inadequate to represent changes

Society community ethos dominates, but with full flowering of individual potential

Culture  shift from consumption to satificing-orientation; respect for diversity

Technology  targeted technological advances; well ahead of activity  changes 

Governance bottom-up dominates; proactive in intent and implementation; strong results

Environment robust within limits

•	LESSON ONE
Contrasting yet plausible stories can be told for how the world and its regions will develop in the next 30 years; each has fundamentally different implications for the environment.

•	LESSON TWO
There can be significant delays between human actions, including policy decisions, and associated impacts on the environment, specifically:
§      much of the environmental change that will occur over the next 30 years has already been set in motion by past and current actions
§      many of the effects of environmentally-relevant policies put into place over the next 30 years will not be apparent until long afterwards
 
•	LESSON THREE
Achieving widely agreed environmental and social goals will require dramatic and coordinated action starting now and continuing for a number of years. Steps must include policies based on prevention and adaptation.

•	LESSON FOUR
Important linkages exist between different environmental issues and between environmental and broader social issues. It follows that:
§      policy can be made more effective by looking for synergies or ‘co-benefits’
§      care must be taken to avoid conflicts between policies
 
•	LESSON FIVE
The establishment of strong institutions for environmental governance is a prerequisite for almost all other policies.

•	LESSON SIX
Ensuring timely access to accurate information is a robust policy, as it:
§      allows for early warning of environmental problems
§      can stimulate voluntary action by business and industry
§      can support formal and informal market-based mechanisms that promote good environmental conduct 

•	LESSON SEVEN
Not all policy instruments are appropriate for all situations.

•	LESSON EIGHT
The achievement of environmental goals will require decisive action, will encounter unforeseen eventualities, and will not happen overnight. Fortunately or unfortunately, much of the success or failure of this endeavour is in our hands.